Apr 08, 2007

The Evansville Courier - Ellsworth bid starts to roll

Apr 8, 2007

The Evansville Courier - Ellsworth bid starts to roll

With both major political parties mobilizing and potential challengers quietly positioning themselves to run, U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth's 2008 re-election race is already starting to take shape.

A key early test will come within a week when congressional candidates must file first-quarter campaign finance reports with the Federal Election Commission. The reports, the first quarterly filings since November's election, are due by midnight April 15.

"I expect (Ellsworth) to have a strong showing, knowing what kind of fundraiser he was in 2006," said Amy Walter, senior editor of The Cook Political Report.

Ellsworth, D-Ind, spent more than $1.7 million on his challenge to then-8th District Rep. John Hostettler, whom he defeated by a margin of 61 percent to 39 percent of the votes.

Walter, a congressional election expert who handicaps and analyzes U.S. House races, said Ellsworth can send a strong message of intimidation to potential challengers with vigorous fundraising in 2007.

Ellsworth's office said he was unavailable to comment on his prospects for re-election, but the national Republican and Democratic parties already have had plenty to say about the subject.

In a move that underscores the increasingly early-starting and technologically savvy nature of modern campaigning, the National Republican Congressional Committee last month launched a marketing campaign against Ellsworth and 10 other freshman House Democrats it calls "endangered."

The committee says its initiative includes a Web site (www.TheReal DemocratStory.com/brad.ellsworth) and plans for local and national blog outreach, a mass editorial board mailing and a talk radio blitz. The initiative could be buttressed in coming months by voter-produced ads on YouTube and fundraising by e-mail.

"We will use every tool available to highlight the records of Ellsworth and other Democrats ...," said committee spokeswoman Jessica Boulanger.

But the GOP committee's Democratic counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, also has targeted Ellsworth's seat for special attention.

The committee named Ellsworth one of 29 Democratic House members to benefit from its Frontline incumbent protection program.

"This competitive program requires members to meet aggressive fundraising goals, accelerate volunteer and recruitment efforts and increase online networking," a Democratic committee statement says.

Among the other Frontline beneficiaries are several House members who political experts said were among the Democrats' most politically vulnerable and endangered incumbents in 2006.

Ryan Rudominer, Midwest regional press secretary for the Democratic committee, said Ellsworth isn't in that group, but he is on the list because the 8th District was represented for the past 12 years by a Republican. In addition, the district gave 62 percent of its vote to President Bush in 2004.

"We stand ready to combat the NRCC's cheap partisan attacks and get out the truth (on Ellsworth's behalf)," Rudominer said.

Walter said the financial and organizational imperatives of modern campaigning leave candidates no choice but to begin gearing up for House elections two years in advance.

"The average House campaign nowadays costs about $1.5 million," she said. "You just can't raise that kind of money in a month. You need a big head start.

"Plus, in a district as big as the 8th, a candidate has to get out and about and raise the profile. Ellsworth had a significant base in Vanderburgh County, but that's rare."

In 2006, 26 percent of the 18-county 8th District's 491,000 registered voters lived in Vanderburgh County.

The field of potential Republican challengers to Ellsworth already has seen one high-profile candidate - Gibson County Prosecutor Rob Krieg - announce he had opted against running.

Krieg's withdrawal leaves a field of potential candidates that includes Greg Goode, executive assistant to the president of Indiana State University; Andy Horning, Libertarian candidate for governor in 2000 and the GOP's 2004 nominee against 7th District Rep. Julia Carson, D-Ind; and Putnam County Sheriff Mark Frisbee.

Marsha Carrington, 8th District GOP chairwoman, said she knows of no other potential candidates.

Frisbee did not return a telephone message, but Goode said he has been approached by many people to run and will consider it further once the university makes it through the state budgeting process.

Horning, a medical imaging devices consultant in Owen County and a past candidate for several public offices, said he is considering but "leaning against" running.

"Goode has really been out there working hard," Horning said. E.W. Scripps Co.

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